2016 Red Ocean hurricane season

2016 Red Ocean hurricane season

First storm formed	May 29
Last storm dissipated	Season not ended
Strongest storm	Owen - 200 mph, 876 mbar (most intense ever recorded)
Total depressions	19
Total storms	16
Hurricanes	8
Major hurricanes	3
Total damages	$73.922 billion
Total fatalities	663

The 2016 Red Ocean hurricane season is the most costliest and deadliest hurricane season since 2013, as well as the most active since 2014. The season officially began on June 1 and will end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Red Ocean. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time, as demonstrated by the early formation of Tropical Storm Alberto on May 29. After a period of inactivity during the month of June, the 2016 season became the first since 2012 to not feature a tropical cyclone in that month. Tropical Depression Two eventually formed on July 1, and ultimately strengthened into Tropical Storm Bonnie, which would later make landfall as a strong tropical storm in Marlton. Hurricane Fran became the first major hurricane of the season on August 5, and the second hurricane overall after Cristobal. Hurricane Ivo became the second major hurricane of the season, and steered out to sea. Later in the season, Hurricane Nicole made landfall as a powerful extratropical cyclone on the Wagner Coast with record winds and storm surge. On October 15, Hurricane Owen continued to rapidly intensify and became a Category 5 hurricane, the first in the basin since Hurricane Peta in 2014 and the strongest hurricane in October since Wendi of 2013. By the next day, Owen continued to explosively intensify to peak at winds of 200 mph and a record minimum pressure of 876 mbar, becoming the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed in the Red Ocean basin beating the previous record of Mario just two years earlier. On October 16, the eye of Owen made landfall near Longboat Beach, East Island as a powerful Category 5 hurricane, the first to ever make landfall on East Island at that intensity. After all of the damages accounted for, Owen became both the costliest hurricane in the history of the Jared Isles and the costliest ever seen in the basin after causing damages of around $52 billion and an official death toll of 602. Through the remainder of the month, Owen continued to move away from the isles and gave heavy surf to Granolia, while Tropical Depression Nineteen caused a major flooding event in the Granolian Tip on a damage scale that hadn't been seen since Harrison of the previous season.  

Red Ocean hurricane seasons
2014 2015  2016 2017 2018

Seasonal summary

Season outlooks

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2016 season

Source	Date	Named storms	Hurricanes	Major hurricanes	Ref
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
GCMC	December 11, 2015	11	6	2
HMC	March 14, 2016	15	7	3
GCMC	April 12, 2016	14	7	3
KMC	May 28, 2016	13-16	6-8	2-4
HMC	June 1, 2016	17	8	4
AMC	June 6, 2016	16	8	3
GCMC	June 15, 2016	15	6	3
HMC	September 10, 2016	16	6	3
	Actual activity	16	8	3

In advance of each hurricane season, forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by the Green City Meteorological Center (GCMC) in Green City. On December 11, 2015, the GCMC made an early prediction of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. They had cautioned that the upcoming season will be very uncertain as it will rely upon when and if the strong El Nino event from the previous season dissipates by the start of the 2016 season. They had also noted there is a 33% chance that the upcoming season will be above average, a 34% chance it will be near-normal and a 33% chance of being below-normal, essentially split possibilities, due to the high uncertainty. On March 14, 2016, the Hamilton Meteorological Center (HMC) predicted the season would feature 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes as they highlighted that the ongoing El Nino event was likely to dissipate by the start of the season. On April 12, the GCMC released their spring outlook, which predicted for an above average season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes and noted that neutral conditions to a weak La Nina were likely. On May 28, the Kingville Meteorological Center issued their first prediction for the upcoming 2015 season, predicting 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. SST's were listed as on par with 2014. On June 1, the HMC made their annual first day of hurricane season prediction, and after the team concluded that there is at least a 60% chance of an above average season, the team concluded the season will likely see 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Timeline of tropical activity in the 2016 Red Ocean hurricane season

Storms

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	May 29 – May 31
Intensity	45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min),  1001 mbar (hPa)

On May 26, an area of low pressure was highlighted for the potential for tropical cyclogenesis west of the Jared Isles. Over the course of the next few days, the low slowly organized. On May 29, after Hurricane Hunter reconaissance aircraft investigated the system, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alberto. Alberto would later slightly strengthen before succumbing to high upper-level wind shear, and weakened into a tropical depression on May 30. Alberto persisted as a weak tropical depression for the next day or so before becoming a post-tropical low.

Tropical Storm Bonnie

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	July 1 – July 5
Intensity	65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min),  994 mbar (hPa)

On June 23, the National Hurricane Center began highlighting the potential for tropical cyclogenesis around a week later. The system gradually organized and eventually affected the Jared Isles with torrential rains which caused flooding. Eventually on July 1, Tropical Depression Two formed midway between the Jared Isles and Marlton. Two would later be further upgraded into a tropical storm later that day, being assigned the name Bonnie. Bonnie intensified up until landfall as a strong tropical storm. At the time, a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was in place. Bonnie would slowly weaken until becoming a post-tropical cyclone on July 5 as it accelerated to the northeast.

Hurricane Cristobal

Category 1 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	July 11 – July 20
Intensity	90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min),  979 mbar (hPa)

On July 7, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Jamali. Embedded within an environment of dry air and moderate wind shear, development of the wave was expected to be slow. As it continued to traverse westward, satellite data estimates confirmed on July 11 that the system had organized into Tropical Depression Three. Later that night, the NHC upgraded the depression into Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal gradually strengthened as it headed westward. On July 13, Cristobal was upgraded to a hurricane. Hurricane warnings were promptly issued for all of the islands of the Jared Isles. Cristobal reached its peak intensity just below Category 2 intensity on July 14 as it made landfall on East Island.

Tropical Storm Donna

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	July 13 – July 14
Intensity	40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min),  1006 mbar (hPa)

On July 11, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a frontal low northwest of the Jared Isles. Embedded in an unfavorable environment, significant development was not expected. However, the low gradually organized and was upgraded straight to Tropical Storm Donna on July 13. Due to the unfavorable environment, Donna did not strengthen further and was downgraded to a tropical depression the next day. Six hours later, the NHC discontinued advisories on Donna, as it had weakened into a remnant low.

Tropical Storm Earl

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	July 13 – July 14
Intensity	45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min),  1005 mbar (hPa)

On July 10, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a tropical wave that split off of the Intertropical Covergence Zone midway in the Red Ocean. Over the next few days, the system would gradually organize. By July 13, enough convection persisted close to the center for the NHC to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl. Due to high upper-level wind shear, Earl would not strengthen further and weakened into a remnant low the next day. The remnant low would persist for the next few days and be noted to have a slight chance of regeneration until it has dissipated.

Hurricane Fran

Category 3 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	August 2 – August 13
Intensity	115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min),  965 mbar (hPa)

On July 30, a vigorous tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Jamali. Due to favorable environmental conditions, the wave would later further organize to become Tropical Depression Six on August 2. The depression later strengthened into Tropical Storm Fran later that day. The NHC had noted two possibilities for the path of Fran, in which they would depend on the eventual intensity. Over the next couple of days, Fran would maintain its intensity as it moved westward across the Red Ocean. On August 5, Fran began to rapidly intensity and became a hurricane. Hurricane warnings were issued for the Jared Isles the next day as Fran reached peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane. On August 8, Fran made landfall on East Island as a Category 2 hurricane, the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the Jared Isles since Hurricane Gary. After landfall in the Jared Isles, Fran would later begin to move northwestward and ultimately recurving northeastward before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Gavin

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	August 20 – August 21
Intensity	45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min),  1004 mbar (hPa)

On August 20, the National Hurricane Center began initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Gavin. Due to heavy dry air, Gavin would only strengthen further to reach its peak intensity later that day. The next day, the convection associated with Gavin became displaced from the remnant low as the system became a convectionless vortex. As a result, Gavin degenerated into a remnant low. The low would later track westward to affect the Jared Isles with minor flooding to cause $1.6 million in damages.

Hurricane Henriette

Category 1 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	August 21 – August 26
Intensity	75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min),  989 mbar (hPa)

On August 10, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave located off of the coast of Jamali. Conditions remained marginal for development, and wind shear ultimately increased by August 14. However, on August 18, the NHC again highlighted the possibility for development of the wave, citing more favorable conditions. On August 21, Tropical Depression Eight was classified just to the northeast of the Jared Isles. Following a Hurricane Hunter reconaissance aircraft mission, it became classified as a tropical storm the next day, receiving the name Henriette. Henriette would continue to strengthen, peaking as a minimal Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Ivo

Category 3 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	August 22 – September 1
Intensity	125 mph (205 km/h) (1-min),  948 mbar (hPa)

A well-organized tropical wave moved off of the coast of Jamali on August 20. Over the next couple days, due to favorable upper-level environmental conditions, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Ivo. Despite previous forecasts indicating Ivo would only strengthen slightly, Ivo rapidly strengthened and became a hurricane. As the hurricane would track northwestward, it would continue to gradually strengthen. By August 25, Ivo had become a major hurricane, the second of the season. Later that day, a ship passing through the hurricane reported peak winds of 125 mph. Shortly thereafter, however, Ivo would move into a dryer enviornment not conducive for further strengthening. On September 1, Ivo had transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. The cyclone would later go on to impact the Wagner Coast with heavy surf and damages estimated at $33.4 million from coastal damages.

Tropical Storm Julia

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	August 22 – August 24
Intensity	40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min),  1000 mbar (hPa)

An area of low pressure was classified as Tropical Depression Ten on August 22 after convection increased over the center of circulation. Later that day, the depression would later receive the name Julia after becoming classified as a tropical storm. Most global computer models forseen further development, potentially into a hurricane threatening the Granolian Tip. However, due to high dry air and moderate wind shear, Julia would maintain its strength. By late August 23, Julia became disorganized and the majority of the convection became displaced from the center, and subseuqently was downgraded to a tropical depression The NHC would later discontinue advisories the next day as Hurricane Hunters failed to locate a closed low.

Hurricane Kenneth

Category 1 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	September 10 – September 15
Intensity	90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min),  969 mbar (hPa)

On September 7, NHC began highlighting the possibility for development of a tropical wave splitoff and a nearby merging upper-level through. Due to favorable environmental conditions, the system would gradually organize and was classified as a tropical depression on September 10, the eleventh of the season. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into the system later that day discovered the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Kenneth. The next day, following a Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into the system, Kenneth strengthened into a hurricane. Early on September 12, Kenneth made landfall as a strong Category 1 hurricane.

Tropical Depression Twelve

Tropical depression (GCMC)
Duration	September 17 – September 18
Intensity	35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1010 mbar (hPa)

On September 17, advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve just to the southeast of the Granolian Tip. Therefore, upon formation, tropical storm warnings were issued. Late in the morning the next day, Twelve made landfall near Seychelles Shores in the Granolian Tip.

Tropical Depression Thirteen

Tropical depression (GCMC)
Duration	September 20 – September 23
Intensity	35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1008 mbar (hPa)

On September 17, a tropical wave moved off of the coast of Jamali. Over the next few days, the area of low pressure organized into a tropical depression. The NHC originally forecasted the depression to gradually strengthen into a tropical storm and could be an eventual threat to the Jared Isles, although it is noted Thirteen is likely to continue to have a Fujiwhara interaction with Lidia which could induce weakening. On September 22, Thirteen slightly weakened and global models began indicating the depression could become an open wave due to wind shear caused by the nearby Tropical Storm Lidia. On September 23, due to hostile environmental conditions created by nearby Lidia, Thirteen weakened into a remnant low.

Hurricane Lidia

Category 1 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	September 21 – September 26
Intensity	85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min),  980 mbar (hPa)

On September 19, a vigorous tropical wave moved off of the coast of Jamali. On September 21, NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Strom Lidia since the low was already producing tropical storm force winds. Lidia would gradually strengthen, until running into unfavorable strengthening that halted strengthening. However, on September 25, Lidia rapidly intensified into a Category 1 hurricane despite moderate wind shear and a stable air environment originally forecasted by the NHC.

Tropical Storm Mark

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	September 27 – October 5
Intensity	70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min),  990 mbar (hPa)

On September 27, Tropical Depression Fifteen formed southeast of Newport, Marlton. By the next day, it strengthened into a tropical storm and was designated the name Mark. Mark began to gradually strengthen as it meandered in the waters just offshore Marlton. On September 30, Mark suddenly rapidly intensified to just below hurricane status. However, it was forecasted not to become a hurricane due to land interaction and dry air entrainment. On October 2, Mark transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. However, over the next couple of days, Mark had slowly transitioned into a subtropical cyclone. On October 4, satellite observations indicated that Mark had become a subtropical storm. The next day, Mark transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Nicole

Category 1 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	October 5 – October 13
Intensity	80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min),  986 mbar (hPa)

On October 5, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicole west of Jamali. The system would fluctuate in strength in an environment of moderate wind shear, which limited significant strengthening. However, on October 8, Nicole rapidly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. Nicole would later weaken and fluctuate in intensity over the course of the next few days. However, on October 12, Nicole strengthened once again into a hurricane and hurricane watches and warnings were issued for the Wagner Coast for the first time since Hurricane Liam in 2013. Nicole would become extratropical on October 13, however the warnings continued to stay in place. The powerful extratropical remains of Nicole made landfall on October 14, with winds of 80 mph and a minimum pressure of 959 mbar, the lowest ever seen in any system in the Wagner Coast history. Initial damage reports of the effects of Nicole indicated that it wrought devastating damage on a level not seen in the Wagner Coast since Liam which made landfall farther north. Damage is estimated to be at least $9 billion. 5 deaths are attributed to Nicole.

Hurricane Owen

Category 5 hurricane (GCMC)
Duration	October 6 – October 25
Intensity	200 mph (325 km/h) (1-min),  876 mbar (hPa)

On October 6, Tropical Depression Seventeen formed west of Jamali. Over the next couple of the days, the depression would gradually organize, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Owen on October 8. Owen would later continue to slowly strengthen, and briefly became a hurricane on October 10. However, due to a hostile environment, it weakened back into a tropical storm and maintained strength until satellite estimates indicated that Owen once again strengthened into a hurricane on October 12 as the system entered a more favorable environment. The NHC forecast originally called for intensification into a powerful Category 3 hurricane that would come close to, if not make landfall in East Island. However, Owen began a period of rapid intensification on October 14 and Hurricane Hunters found that it had become a Category 4 hurricane, and thus the third major hurricane of the season. Owen continued to explosively intensify, and following a Hurricane Hunter flight into the eye of the hurricane on October 15, the hurricane became the strongest ever observed in the Red Ocean basin with record winds of 200 mph and a record minimum pressure of 874 mbar. Due to an eyewall replacement cycle which began shortly afterward, Owen weakened to a borderline Category 5 before making landfall. The hurricane weakened through the passage through the isle, and moved more inland than anticipated and therefore caused much more damage than initially expected. Owen started moving away from the island and made a close approach to East Island as a strong Category 3 hurricane before moving away into open waters. On October 19, A Hurricane Hunter flight confirmed Owen had once again become a Category 5 hurricane as it moved in a warmer pool of waters. Shortly thereafter, Owen began weakening as it moved into an area of more hostile environmental conditions. It later began moving northwest and began making a turn to the northeast by the evening of October 22, where it had attained a record for its unusually high intensity in the location that the hurricane was as a strong Category 2. By early on October 23, Owen unexpectedly restrengthened into a Category 3 hurricane, becoming the northernmost major hurricane to ever exist in the basin. Shortly thereafter, however, Owen once again began weakening as it began to the beginning stages of an extratropical transition.

Upon landfall near Longboat Beach, Owen became the first major hurricane to make landfall on East Island since Hurricane Milo in 2006 and the first Category 5 hurricane to directly make landfall on the island in recorded history. Initial damage estimates, between East Island alone, puts damages around $22 billion. This total would verify Owen to be the costliest hurricane in the history of the island, and among the top 3 costliest hurricanes in the basin. The President of the Jared Isles, Cristina Hutchinson, declared a federal nationwide disaster declaration, and announced that there is at least 300 dead as a result of the hurricane. On October 21, President Hutchinson confirmed an official death toll of 602. After final damage estimates were totaled, the damage total as a result of Hurricane Owen was $52 billion, which would make it by far the costliest hurricane ever seen in the Jared Isles and the costliest ever recorded in the basin.

Tropical Storm Patty

Tropical storm (GCMC)
Duration	October 11 – October 15
Intensity	40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min),  1008 mbar (hPa)

Tropical Storm Patty formed on October 11. Later that day, Patty made landfall over Livingston, Janele Island. In doing so, it was the first tropical cyclone to affect the area since Hurricane Samantha devastated the island in 2014. Patty later moved away from the island and ultimately recurved out to sea, without strengthening due to heavy wind shear and dry air. By October 15, Patty had become an extratropical cyclone as it began to accelerate to the northeast in the extreme northern Red Ocean.

Tropical Depression Nineteen

Tropical depression (GCMC)
Duration	October 15 – October 17
Intensity	35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1001 mbar (hPa)

On October 15, Tropical Depression Nineteen formed east of Marlton and Granolia. Due to heavy wind shear, it was not expected to strengthen much. The NHC noted however they had expected the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm, which it had never done. By October 17, Nineteen had lost tropical characteristics. However, the remnants associated with the depression had strengthened to attain tropical storm-force winds as it began to impact the Granolian Tip. This would cause a damaging flooding event, due to the fact the area was already receiving above average rainfall. 4 deaths are attributed to the system and damage is estimated around $267 million.

Season effects

This is a table of the storms in the 2016 Red Ocean hurricane season. It mentions all of the season's storms and their names, landfall(s), peak intensities, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of such being a traffic accident or landslide), but are still related to that storm. The damage and death totals in this list include impacts when the storm was a precursor wave or post-tropical low, and all of the damage figures are in 2014 USD.

Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale
TD	TS	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5

2016 Red Ocean hurricane season statistics

Storm name	Dates active	Storm category at peak intensity	Max wind (mph)	Min. press. (mbar)	Landfall(s)			Damage	Deaths
					Where	When	Wind
Alberto	29 - 31 May	Tropical storm	45	1001	None			None	0
Beryl	1 - 5 July	Tropical storm	65	994	Newport, Marlton	July 4	65	98.6	0(2)
Cristobal	11 - 20 July	Category 1 hurricane	90	979	Fredricksville, Jared Isles	July 14	90	302	3(1)
Donna	13 - 14 July	Tropical storm	40	1006	None			None	0
Earl	13 - 14 July	Tropical storm	45	1005	None			None	0
Fran	2 - 13 August	Category 3 hurricane	115	965	East Point, Jared Isles	August 8	105	686	12(2)
Gavin	20 - 21 August	Tropical storm	45	1004	None			1.6	0
Henriette	21 - 26 August	Category 1 hurricane	75	989	None			None	0
Ivo	22 Aug - 1 September	Category 3 hurricane	125	948	None			33.4	4(2)
Julia	22 - 24 August	Tropical storm	40	1000	None			None	0
Kenneth	10 - 15 September	Category 1 hurricane	90	969	Hayley Park, Jared Isles	August 12	90	~1,800	10(3)
Twelve	17 - 18 September	Tropical depression	35	1010	Seychelles, Granolia	September 18	35	Minimal	0
Thirteen	20 - 23 September	Tropical depression	35	1008	None			None	0
Lidia	21 - 26 September	Category 1 hurricane	85	980	None			None	0
Mark	27 September - 5 October	Tropical storm	70	990	None			None	0
Nicole	5 - 13 October	Category 1 hurricane	80	985	None			9,000	9
Owen	6 -25 October	Category 5 hurricane	200	874	Longboat, Jared Isles	October 16	160	52,000	602
Patty	11 -15 October	Tropical storm	40	1008	Livingston, Janele Island	October 12	40	Minimal	0
Nineteen	15 -17 October	Tropical depression	35	1001	None			267	4

Storm names

The following names will be used for identifying storms in the Red Ocean during 2016. The names not retired from this list will be used again for the 2022 season. This is the same list used in the 2010 season. The name Owen was used for the first time this season. Names that are currently active are marked in bold, and unused names are marked with an asterik (*).

Alberto Bonnie Cristobal Donna Earl  Fran Gavin

Henriette Ivo Julia Kenneth Lidia Mark Nicole

Owen Patty Raymond (*) Sonya  (*) Thomas (*) Vera (*) Wilbur (*)